Posted by
Average Voter on Monday, March 26, 2007 10:36:46 PM
The New Republic posts (via CBS News) a interesting look at a poll given to Republican House and Senate leaders last month about whether global warming has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt. So you don't get mixed up with proof and theory, even the U.N.'s Intergovornmental Panel on Climate Change couldn't prove it. And just in case you don't believe me, take a look at
this. (Guidlines on how to explain uncertainty's in their reports. Actually, I am a little surprised it was available!)
This is just one of the examples:
E.
A likelihood or probability of occurrence can be determined for an event or for representative outcomes, e.g. based on multiple observations, model ensemble runs, or expert judgment: State any assumptions made and estimate the role of structural uncertainties. Describe likelihoods using the calibrated language given in Table 4 or present them quantitatively.
And Table 4 below:
Table 4. Likelihood Scale.
Terminology Likelihood of the occurrence/ outcome
Virtually certain
> 99% probability of occurrence
Very likely
> 90% probability
Likely
> 66% probability
About as likely as not
33 to 66% probability
Unlikely
< 33% probability
Very unlikely
< 10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely
< 1% probability